US, France and UK agree on the new Middle East map. The European Union - Germany are supporting the three big brothers (US-UK-FR). Erdogan can betray his brother Putin, Iranian mullah / Syria anytime to use the West against Kurds.


by Roni Alasor / Political-security analyse

Since Jan 2018, especially in the last weeks, the new map of Syria and the Middle East has become clearer. US, France and UK agree what to do in Syria and in the region. The European Union / Germany are supporting the three big brothers (US-UK-FR). 28 members of the EU and the biggest motor of Union, Germany have no other choice since the decision concerns Western-Global political-security matters. Regarding the recent air-strikes by US, France and UK, the President of the EU Council, Donald Tusk (who represents 27 (28) EU member countries) said openly that “The EU will stand with our allies on the side of justice”.

The EU support is very important for US and NATO. Right after EU’s clear position, the US Def Min. James Norman Mattis said: “It`s always important that we act internationally in a unified way over an atrocity like this. The Americans, the French, the British- this is a very well-integrated team. It is a statement about the level of trust between our nations”.

The position of US-NATO-EU on Russia-Iran and Turkey, the Turkish support to the Islamic terror gangs and the war against Kurds are also going to be clearer in the next days/weeks. Turkey has no many chances to choose soon. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will pay a visit to Erdogan soon to tell him his “impressions” from all partners.  

Putin never trusted Erdogan, but he tried to use him against NATO-US-West, while Erdogan used Putin against Kurds. But now after Westerns clear position, Erdogan has to make his choice. He has to be on Russia-Iran-Syria side or with NATO and the West ? Can Erdogan make a last minute surprise to his “brother” Putin and iranian Mullahs and Asad ? All is possible, if Erdogan sees more advantages from US lead NATO and EU to use all possibilities against Kurds, he can change side anytime! US-NATO-EU will shape him with new Western weapons and missiles, if it is necessary in order not to let Turkey to be closer to Russia and Iran. And Erdogan likes very much to be benefiting from everything/everyone, which can be used against Kurds. He and his team are saying very clearly and repeatedly “As we did it during the referendum in Northern Iraq, we will not let Kurds to get any benefits from the new Middle East”.

Kick out Turks from NATO ?

Yet, at least security and military advisors and diplomats in Brussels do not have any “clear signs, if US-West-EU is ready to kick out Erdogan’s Turkey from NATO. It is a complicated issue since there are not very clear rules for expelling NATO member from the organization. NATO never criticises the Turkish brutal human rights violations. The West, on the other hand, has always “closed their eyes” when Turkey’s and Middle East’s despotic regimes cleaned the Christian and other minorities from their own lands. Today Kurds are facing the same tragic fate.   

However, it has been stressful work for NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to be a kind of “dialogue-peace maker” between Erdogan and US-NATO, but he also used his ties with EU to cool down the reactions against Erdogan’s immigration-terror threats against EU. Stoltenberg fears a possible fragility between Turkey and NATO, which will be only in the benefit of Putin’s Russia. Therefore, in the last weeks Stoltenberg rushed from pillar to post between EU and North America. He visited US-Canada-Germany and met many Heads of states and PMs in Europe “to make things more clear” before any possible decision.

The agenda of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller is still full. Lastly, Gottemoeller visited Ukraine and Stoltenberg will pay a visit now to Erdogan to tell him his last “impressions” from all partners.  


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